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9.20 Afternoon Commentary | Talk about some dry goods Yesterday, the trading volume of the two markets was extremely shrinking, only 665.3 billion, and the trading volume hit a new low recently. Institutions, hot money, and retail investors were all flat, and no one was buying the bottom. The market is temporarily in a stalemate stage where the short side is exhausted and the long side waits and sees. I also told you a minute in the morning. From a technical point of view, the deviation rate of the 5-day moving average is relatively large, and there will be a rebound at any time. We saw that several major indexes rebounded to a certain extent this morning, with the ChiNext leading the rise, and individual stocks 8 rose, but the median gain was only 1%, and individual stocks recovered slightly. GEM refers to the bottom divergence in the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute charts, but there is no bottom divergence in the 60-minute chart. At present, it is only a rebound caused by a bottom divergence at the level of the 30-minute chart. The level is not large, and the strength of the market rebound Not big either. Our grasp of the market trend is appropriate. However, from the perspective of the mid-line, according to the analysis of the N-shaped turning wave, the short-term adjustment of the ChiNext must be at least around 2280 points in order to reach a position of the same length as the previous wave. Therefore, as far as the current trend is concerned, even if there is a short-term rebound, we believe that the risks have not been released completely. On the whole, it is recommended that you continue to watch the changes, see more and move less. From the perspective of a longer period, taking the monthly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it has been running in a falling wedge for a long time. When it reaches the end of the falling wedge, there will inevitably be a dramatic change, or an upward trend. , either down, no third. Although the position of A shares is not high, it is unlikely that it will go down, but everything is possible. As market participants, we certainly want the market to be up. We should pay attention to the time window of mid-to-late October. If there are signs of bottoming out on the technical side and the fundamentals also show major positives, then it is an opportunity; if the time window is reached, the technical trend has also formed, but the fundamentals are not With that, the index is likely to continue down. The market forecast is like this, this is not a two-way block, we mean that there are two possibilities. To do things is to have a heart and prepare with both hands. All things are foreshadowed and not foreshadowed, we give the general direction, as for the specific operation, it is your own business. |