The yen is approaching the key point of the "1998 financial crisis", and the whole market is staring at the Japanese government

time:2023-03-22 author:Individual stock analysis
The yen is approaching the key point of the "1998 financial crisis", and the whole market is staring at the Japanese government

The yen continued to fall, and the Japanese government's senior officials strengthened "verbal intervention" but had little effect. The market is closely watching whether the Japanese financial authorities will take measures. As of press time, the dollar against the yen was 142.46, the highest in the week reached 144.99, once approaching the 1998 financial crisis peak of 147.65. The yen has fallen more than 20% so far this year. "Japan must take necessary measures while closely monitoring developments such as excessive exchange rate and unilateral fluctuations," Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said on a TV show on Sunday. Before his remarks, the Bank of Japan said: Haruhiko Naguroda also issued his strongest warning yet on the depreciation of the yen on Friday. Kuroda Haruhiko said that the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar by 2-3 yen in a day is a very sudden situation, and he does not want to see a rapid depreciation of the yen, which increases the uncertainty of business operations. While the remarks gave the market some breathing room, it failed to turn things around. Although the current discussion about "foreign exchange market intervention" is booming, professionals still expect the so-called "necessary response" of the Japanese government to be limited to words. However, some analysts pointed out that Japan may take other measures to boost the yen, including opening borders.

Japan's financial markets continue to be volatile

Yen has fallen far more than other hard currencies such as the euro, pound or Canadian dollar so far this year against the dollar, and even more than the Philippine peso, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah Or Asian currencies like Indian Rupee. Shusuke Yamada, chief foreign exchange and rates strategist at Bank of America in Japan, explained that short-term investors are leading the sell-off in the yen as Japan's foreign exchange authorities have not taken any substantial action. Shusuke Yamada said: “Market participants have become emboldened because they have not seen (Japanese authorities) do anything to break a key support level. They believe the authorities are more tolerant than they previously thought. Now they are targeting It was 147, the last time it was at this level was in 1998.” The bearish sentiment for the yen remains unchanged given the monetary policy and yield differentials in Japan and the United States. Asset managers’ net short positions in the yen hit a record last week, with leveraged funds’ net short positions in the yen reaching the highest level since March, latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. In addition, differences in the direction of U.S. and Japanese monetary policy have kept investors buying dollars and selling yen, as Japan's lack of attractive assets keeps capital outflows. Toshiyasu Ohashi, chief credit analyst at Daiwa Securities, lamented: “It’s hard to expect the Japanese stock market to perform well, while the U.S. stock market is still in a correction phase. There will also be fewer IPOs in Japan, and companies are nervous about raising money by issuing shares,” according to Dealogic. In the second and third quarters of this year, the value of IPO transactions in the Asia-Pacific region was less than half of that in the fourth quarter of last year.

Japan may open its borders, but analysts remain bearish

Japan plans to lift the cap of 50,000 people traveling abroad by October and will consider removing other barriers to inbound travel, according to media reports on Sunday. . Prime Minister Fumio Kishida could decide on the move as soon as this week. Japan is planning to relax rules to allow foreign visitors to book directly and travel freely within Japan, currently requiring them to arrange their trips through travel agencies. There are also plans to lift the cap on the number of daily incoming passengers and restore visa-free rules. However, analysts remain broadly bearish on the yen. Goldman Sachs Group strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note on Friday: “Even after the recent moves, we still think the yen will continue to fall. But we believe that as the dollar strengthens against the yen, To higher levels, the Japanese government will focus on intervention risks and a possible shift in monetary policy." Yujiro Goto, chief foreign exchange strategist at Nomura, said: "Inflationary pressures in the U.S. are easing, and by October or November, this round of tightening The cycle may peak. At the same time, lower oil prices will cut Japan’s trade deficit, and selling pressure on the yen may ease from the fourth quarter.” Goto forecasts USD/JPY to hit 130 by year-end, although he acknowledged the dollar Against the yen may break to 145 in the short term. But in the long run, Nomura believes the yen will gradually approach the level of 180 yen per dollar. However, some analysts said that the most important thing now is to pay attention to the actions of Japanese policymakers. "The current yen sell-off is based on the assumption that the BOJ will not act in response to the yen's decline, and we need to watch whether this will continue, including the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on September 21-22," said Shusuke Yamada. At the meeting, whether policy makers will take new measures." Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities warned last Wednesday that the recent tightening trend in global financial conditions may not stop unless the major central banks change their policy direction, while the Bank of Japan, financial institutions A tripartite meeting between the province and the FSA, an adjustment to yield curve control (YCC) or an intervention on the yen is one of them. Bloomberg analyst Simon White believes that the yen's depreciation is slowing economic growth, making a hit to real growth more likely, especially with signs that inflation is heading for a higher and more volatile state. In addition, another risk to the yen's movement lies in the Japanese government or central bank stepping up intervention to stabilize the yen's exchange rate, or the Bank of Japan giving up or loosening its control over the upper limit of the 10-year JGB yield. Either scenario would trigger a reversal in the yen's exchange rate, and that reversal would get stronger, White said. This article is from Wall Street News, welcome to download the APP to see more
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