too difficult! Housing prices cannot rise, fall, and remain stable, and have fallen into a ternary paradox

time:2023-01-30 06:39:21source:chakarski.com author:Garbage
too difficult! Housing prices cannot rise, fall, and remain stable, and have fallen into a ternary paradox

Recently, Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, published a paragraph about the property market that became popular. He said that the price of houses cannot be increased now, because it will increase the cost of the real economy. The price of the house cannot be reduced either, because it will increase the risk of the financial system. It is impossible not to go up or down, because there is no price increase expectation, everyone will not buy a house, and without the price reduction expectation, everyone will not have children! Many people refer to this as the "Impossible Triangle of Real Estate". I prefer to call it the "Trilemma". The impossible triangle means that the three cannot be established at the same time, and at most two can be established. The above paragraph is obviously a paradox. Up, down, neither up nor down, one of the three is always true, and it is impossible for none of the three to be true. So, why does this "trilemma" appear, because this paragraph is wrong! Can the house really not fall, is it really a financial risk if it falls? Obviously, not so. In the past few decades, the average down payment for buying a house is 30%, plus the part that has already been repaid. According to the data released in the past two years, the average leverage of housing loans is about 2 times. In other words, in general, after the housing price is cut in half, the Only some houses will fall into negative equity. At this time, the financial risk is almost 100%. In the past few years, there have been many news of bank stress tests, and each time it is said that it is a 30% decline, so there is not much risk. So, why can't house prices fall? As long as it doesn't exceed 30%, the market should be bearable. Even if it falls into negative equity, I feel that in China, many people may have to repay the money. After all, in the past so many years, the house has been unfinished, and there are still people who continue to repay the mortgage. The news of "collective loan suspension", but it seems that there is no follow-up. And can the house remain stable? This seems to be the most desired result at present, so that the real estate will not have a hard landing. As for the fertility cost of residents, it can also be resolved through income growth. Therefore, the key to this is to keep income growing continuously, and change space through time, so that income growth will naturally reduce the housing price-to-income ratio, so as to achieve the purpose of defusing the bubble. This goal is further decomposed into maintaining sustained economic growth, so that the growth rate of residents' income should not only be higher than the GDP growth rate, but also higher than the CPI growth rate. However, this also has to pay a price, that is, the turnover and transaction volume of real estate have fallen sharply, and the most difficult life is the developer. The developer's cash can almost only rely on property market sales and continued financing. Now, after the three red lines, the financing channels for developers have been greatly restricted, and they can almost only rely on selling houses to get cash back. When the sales of real estate fell sharply, it is understandable that developers continue to make thunderstorms. But then again, do we really need so many developers? In addition to Hong Kong's Hutchison Whampoa, we have a maximum of 7 developers in the global top 500, while no foreign developer has entered the top 500. Therefore, even if most developers withdraw from the market in the future, it will only return to normal.
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