A world-renowned private equity firm with 300 billion in hand, ready to buy the bottom of the property market

time:2022-12-09 05:21:41source:chakarski.com author:Stock market
A world-renowned private equity firm with 300 billion in hand, ready to buy the bottom of the property market

Over the weekend, a piece of news about the world-renowned private equity fund Blackstone became popular! Blackstone announced that it has raised $50 billion, more than 300 billion yuan, and is ready to hunt for the bottom of the property market. This news does make me feel a little confused. After all, the real estate market has not collapsed yet. Although some developers have collapsed, and housing prices in some cities are also falling, whether in the world or in China, the overall housing prices are still high and stable. , It's still too early to buy the dip. Especially in Europe and the United States, after two years of unprecedented water release, housing prices can be said to have gone crazy, and have long surpassed the peak level of the real estate bubble period in 2006. According to the famous Case-Shiller index, the housing prices in the top 10 major cities in the United States rose by more than 20% last year, and the highest rose by 40%. Such an increase has caught up with our level in 2016. I have also written an article on the real estate bubble in the United States before, and I believe that the current real estate bubble in the United States cannot be ignored, and the degree of the bubble is not inferior to that of the US stock market. Now that U.S. stocks have plummeted, housing prices have not yet begun to fall, but U.S. mortgage rates have hit a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, averaging 5.4 percent. What is this level? After we have experienced interest rate cuts in the past few months, the lowest mortgage interest rate is only 4.25% (excluding the interest rate of provident fund loans), and the interest rate in the United States has exceeded ours. It is expected that after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this week, mortgage loan interest rates will continue to rise. This will be a heavy pressure on the U.S. housing market. With the U.S. economic growth rate and such high interest rates, it is likely to burst the bubble. However, as a private equity firm, in addition to directly copying the real estate market entities, Blackstone will also buy the equity of the company, including the primary and secondary markets. Blackstone is not a pure financial investor. They often change the company's CEO and chairman to help the company improve operational efficiency and enhance company value. A similar case can be seen in the book My Experiences and Lessons by Blackstone founder Schwarzman. Of course, they also buy real estate bonds. Back then, our CIC bought the bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the introduction of Blackstone! It is indeed an old friend of the Chinese people. At present, the stock prices of the top five real estate companies in the United States have not fallen much, and they are basically the same as the US stocks. For example, LGD has halved, Lerner has only fallen by 25%, and Holden has fallen by 30%, which is almost wiped out last year. Compared with private developers in China, the decline is basically as high as more than 90%, and even some are only a fraction. Is Blackstone interested in Chinese real estate companies? It is indeed possible. Blackstone was preparing to acquire Pan Shiyi's SOHO equity before. However, the matter was later filed by the Ministry of Commerce's anti-monopoly investigation, and finally Blackstone voluntarily gave up the acquisition. Therefore, if you want to buy Chinese real estate developers, it is almost impossible to bypass policy risks such as anti-monopoly. Then, there is a high probability that Blackstone is planning ahead and waiting for the real estate collapse in Europe and the United States!
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