Oil slumps below $80 for a major turnaround

time:2023-01-30 04:34:42source:chakarski.com author:Education stock
Oil slumps below $80 for a major turnaround

Recently, I wrote an analysis of crude oil, and immediately crude oil continued to hit a new low, which has fallen below $90. Many friends were interested and asked some questions such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, what impact will it have on oil prices, and where will oil prices fall if the conflict ends? I will continue to talk about yesterday's topic. First of all, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is largely ignored now, so this news has almost no impact on oil prices. Only when the sanctions are lifted in Europe and the United States or the conflict ends, there may be a major setback. Before, due to the news, these gains of $100-130 in oil prices have been completely erased. This is in line with expectations. You can read the articles I wrote during the conflict period, saying that the violent fluctuations caused by the news are an opportunity to short, and directly give the judgment that US crude oil $130 is a 10-year top! The rise and fall of oil prices and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are actually not purely linear, but mutually causal. When oil prices rise, Russia has the money to fight. When the war machine starts, oil prices will soar, but this is often very short-lived. Within six months, oil prices will peak. And when oil prices drop, the Russian economy will be hit hard, and there will be an incentive to end the conflict. I personally expect that when oil falls below $80, within three months after that, Russia will declare the special military operation a victory and then end. It can be said that since the beginning of this year, except for the rise in oil and energy prices, which has led to a substantial increase in net exports, the rest of the economic system has been hit hard. GDP has experienced negative growth since May, and the negative growth rate for the whole year is expected to exceed 8%. . This, if defined by economics, is not just a recession, but a depression. In terms of foreign exchange, Russia successfully maintained the exchange rate of the ruble by tying natural gas exports to the ruble. It rose sharply and became the best performing currency. The appreciation rate exceeded that of the US dollar, not to mention a number of non-US currencies. This is to be encouraged. At least let us see some possibility of challenging the hegemony of the dollar, and some even call this event the "ruble uprising". Saddam, the last challenger to dollar hegemony, was hanged by the Americans. Since then, a number of countries with good relations with Russia have announced that they will use currency swaps in their trade with Russia, and will no longer use the US dollar, including Turkey, India and so on. However, such artificially pushed up the exchange rate is not the choice of the market. At present, Russia still controls foreign exchange and cannot freely convert euros and dollars. Not long ago, Russia also announced that it would extend the foreign exchange control time to March next year. I did not find black market prices in Russian dollars. However, this gap can often be very large. For example, in Argentina, the dollar price on the black market is more than 75% higher than the official exchange rate. As for some small countries with political turmoil and frequent military activities, the official exchange rate may not even be referenced by the official. In any case, I have always said that the peaking of this round of crude oil will happen once in 10 years, and shorting crude oil will be the most comfortable way to make money this year, and it is also an investment that can change your life. Of course, I am against arbitrarily adding leverage, and ordinary people can choose to short oil ETFs.
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