Currency data burst! The central bank recovered 385 billion yuan, revealing three major signals behind it

time:2022-12-09 08:31:26source:chakarski.com author:Aviation stock
Currency data burst! The central bank recovered 385 billion yuan, revealing three major signals behind it

Last week, the central bank’s reverse repurchase for 5 consecutive days was only 3 billion, less than 10 billion, and the recycling flow was as high as 385 billion. This is in stark contrast to the large-scale currency launch in April and May. The last similar operation was in January 2021, and after the Spring Festival in the second month, the traditional big white horse stocks collapsed. So far, most of them have been cut from their highs. There may be three reasons why the central bank does this. First, after the massive launch in April and May, the market interest rate, especially the mortgage rate, has fallen sharply, and there is a bit of excess liquidity. The monetary data in June will be bursting, the growth rate of social financing, new loans and M2 will greatly exceed expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate has greatly exceeded expectations. Second, concerns about price issues. The CPI data released in June reached 2.5%, a new high for the year, and many brokerages have released reports that it will exceed 3% in the second half of the year. Personally, I'm not worried about prices, but think the biggest risk is deflation, not inflation. The rebound in CPI in June was related to record gasoline prices and a bottoming out in pork prices. However, the peak of the commodity I predicted has basically begun to be verified, and the price of crude oil will likely form a double top, and the price will only fall in the future. This point, in fact, it can be seen from the PPI that the PPI has fallen for 2 months month-on-month. The price of pork is in a normal pork rising cycle. It is not the same as the historically high price of pork in 2020 driven by the epidemic, swine fever and environmental protection. The interpretation of the above two points means that the central bank's currency delivery speed will slow down, which is bearish for the market. However, there is another reason that may also cause the central bank to reduce reverse repurchase, which is to accumulate space for the next RRR cut. According to the rhythm of the past year, the central bank will cut interest rates or cut the reserve ratio basically once every quarter. Will the rhythm change this time? After all, the real economy is under great pressure, not to mention the recovery of liquidity, even if the current rhythm of currency issuance remains unchanged, the target of 5.5% this year is difficult to achieve. So far, we have not said that we will lower the growth target. Before the previous RRR cuts, the central bank reduced the scale of reverse repurchase. After all, this is a short-term measure, and the RRR cut is a medium-to-long-term measure, and the two are generally not used at the same time. Therefore, if the RRR is to be lowered, then there should be wind in late July.
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