burst! The central bank cuts interest rates again, and the real estate rebound is short-lived

time:2023-01-30 06:19:57source:chakarski.com author:Hot industry
burst! The central bank cuts interest rates again, and the real estate rebound is short-lived

On Monday, the central bank continued to make MLF and reverse repurchase, and the interest rates of both were reduced by 10 basis points. If nothing else, the LPR will be cut next time. For such an operation, it is not surprising. In July, the central bank continued to reduce the volume of the sequel to MLF, many times the scale of which was 3 billion in a single day. When the liquidity was continuously recovered from the market, I wrote an article to analyze: At that time, mainstream market analysts believed that the central bank’s It is tightening. After all, after several easings, the market is not short of money. Then the central bank began to worry about inflation. The CPI in July has reached 2.7%, a new high for the year, and the central bank believes that in the rest of this year, there will be some months exceeding 3%! This is the mainstream opinion, and there is some truth to it. However, I also put forward a different view, that is, the central bank is accumulating space for the next RRR cut or interest rate cut. Since last year, we have basically maintained the rhythm of reducing the reserve ratio or cutting interest rates once every quarter. Now we just continue this rhythm without disrupting it. Moreover, I am not worried about the risk of inflation. What I have always worried about is the risk of deflation in China, which is also different from most people. It is undeniable that there is no shortage of money in the current market. The M2 growth rate in July reached 12% year-on-year, which is a 5-year high in my impression. However, both loans and new social financing have fallen sharply, indicating that the phenomenon of idling of funds is becoming more and more. more obvious. So this time, the central bank reduced the interest rate and continued to make MLF. This also points out the direction for future monetary policy. We will reduce the cost of capital and control the total scale at the same time, so the possibility of future RRR cuts will be smaller, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. Now, with the release of economic data for July, it can be seen that there is still pressure. The first is that the PMI slipped back into recession territory in July, falling below 50. The troika driving the economy, the trade surplus has been very bright in the past three years, while the growth rate of fixed asset investment is lower than that in June. The most surprising thing is the total retail sales of social consumption. The year-on-year growth rate was only 2.7%, which was also lower than that in June. You know, economists expected 5%. Of course, I think the economists are too nonsense. The growth rate is definitely getting lower and lower, and some people expect the growth rate to be higher and higher. This is the performance of economists who have been out of society for too long. As for real estate data, it is almost the worst industry, with double-digit declines in both investment and sales. In terms of housing prices, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number fell to 40 month-on-month, and the number of declines was still greater than the number of increases. I have been using this data as an indicator of national house prices, and from this perspective, the decline in house prices continues. Not much, however. Generally, we only use adjectives such as bubble burst or "collapse" when the decline is greater than 30%, which has not happened at present. Again, discuss issues and set a data standard, otherwise it will be a chicken-and-duck talk.
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