U.S. economy may never recession as White House can revise definition

time:2023-01-30 05:55:38source:chakarski.com author:Aerospace stock
U.S. economy may never recession as White House can revise definition

Since the second quarter of this year, there have been more and more discussions about the recession in the United States. Even the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have begun to face this problem. It is no good to be an ostrich. Recently, the White House stated that even if the U.S. economy experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, there would be no recession, causing an uproar in the economics community. Because, the definition of economic recession in the United States refers to two consecutive months of negative GDP growth. As long as you change the definition, then the U.S. economy can even declare that it will never decline, even if it is -30%, people can also say that this thing is called "technical adjustment" - this is the Ding in "The Big Times" Crab's classic lines. Note that the definition of economic recession in the United States is not a convention, nor is it the default of the academic community, but is given by the official agency of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Every recession in the United States is confirmed by this agency after the fact. Therefore, I often say that in order to discuss a matter, we must first clarify the concept of the matter, and understand its connotation and extension, otherwise it is tantamount to talking about chickens and ducks. Just like now, there is a quarrel on the Internet about whether there is inflation in China, because there is no clear definition. Internationally, inflation calls CPI greater than 3% inflation. Obviously, we do not. Similarly, the Internet is now arguing about whether housing prices are falling. First-tier cities and hotspot cities say they are rising, and many fourth- and fifth-tier cities say they are falling. Our more than 300 prefecture-level cities are basically impossible to be completely consistent. So what kind of indicators to use to describe the overall situation becomes the key. At present, there is no unified standard between the academic circle and our Bureau of Statistics. I usually use the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities from the Bureau of Statistics. If the number of cities that fell month-on-month exceeds the number of cities that rose month-on-month, I would consider the overall decline. This is one of my analysis of housing prices. premise. The definition of economic indicators is also very interesting. For example, in the past year, we have heard a new word "flexible employment". What is the essence? I believe everyone is familiar with it. So, will the U.S. economy decline? I think the probability is quite high. At present, the European and American PMI or other manufacturing indexes officially fell into the recession range in June. Of course, this data is a month-on-month data, and it usually takes three months to determine the trend. I will continue to track the data changes. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also hit a new low in several years. Not only was confidence falling, but actual consumption was also significantly slowing down. Inflation was one of the important reasons. Therefore, when inflation is bursting and the interest rate hike cycle is superimposed on an extreme bubble in the capital market, the possibility of a hard landing is not even ruled out. At present, the European and American stock markets have basically entered a technical bear market. Yesterday, the interest rate hike was implemented, and it just rebounded. In addition, I talked about the U.S. real estate market two days ago. I think this bubble cannot be ignored, and its valuation bubble is no less than the stock market. The latest data shows that U.S. housing prices also began a month-on-month decline in June. Like PMI, it takes at least 3 months to confirm a trend.
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