After the oil price crash, there is still a fatal blow! Iran will return to the international market

time:2022-12-09 21:17:25source:chakarski.com author:Aerospace stock
After the oil price crash, there is still a fatal blow! Iran will return to the international market

This week, international crude oil prices continued to fall, with both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude hitting new lows for the current round of declines. Last week, oil prices rebounded by a few dollars, and many people left messages worrying about me, saying that I shorted crude oil and was forced short. In fact, for a rebound of $5-10, I don't even blink my eyes. Big meat is always reserved for people with a good mentality. My cost is low enough. When it is below $80, I have to consider taking profit. The big logic of crude oil, which I have emphasized countless times, is that supply exceeds demand. Especially when the global economy enters a recession, the demand for crude oil will continue to decline. OPEC has lowered its forecast for crude oil demand several times. In the big logic, there are some news shocks that can cause large fluctuations, but these are all additions. Saudi Arabia did not give the United States face before, and only increased production a little bit symbolically. After crude oil rebounded sharply, it quickly fell to a new low. Another is that the Iranian nuclear talks are close to reaching a final agreement, and it is expected that the result may be reached within a month. It has been almost three months since this round of negotiations. After going back and forth, one said that an agreement would be reached, and another said that there was no drama. However, this time it should not be the wolf, and there is a high possibility of reaching a final agreement. Once an agreement is reached and the sanctions on Iran are lifted by Europe and the United States, then Iran can return to the international crude oil market and greatly increase the supply in the market. Before being sanctioned, Iran was once the sixth largest crude oil exporter in the world and had a significant impact on the global crude oil market. So, this is very likely to be a fatal blow to crude oil, directly sending U.S. crude below $80 to my target price. Of course, if there is no agreement, there is no need to be nervous. It is nothing more than taking advantage of the news to rebound. As long as the big logic does not change, then such a rebound is nothing more than an opportunity to continue to increase positions and sell shorts. Since the interest rate hike in Europe, combined with the expectation of the Fed's rate hike slowing down, the global capital market, precious metals and commodities have all rebounded violently. Only the big logic of crude oil is the hardest, and it has continuously hit new lows, which is also in line with my opinion. Expectations have repeatedly expressed that this is a life-changing opportunity----such a market only happens once every 10 years, and deducting inflation in the future, it is likely to be a historical peak. For commodities such as European and American stock markets, precious metals and copper, which have rebounded sharply, I also think this round of rebound is over. This round of rebound is not unexpected. Before the interest rate hike in Europe, I predicted that it would suppress the US dollar and US bond yields and have a significant impact on the market. It's just the magnitude of the rebound, I've been stressing, I can't predict it, it's beyond my ability. Now that the rebound is over, it is only a judgment from the right side of the technical side, not a prediction. In the future, the demand for bulk commodities will fall further, and this logic remains unchanged, while US stocks will gradually begin to reflect on the real economy from the reflection and expectation of monetary policy - that is, Europe and the United States have already Entering a new recession in technology, recession is inevitable!
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