HSBC: Birth rates collapse, global population to peak in late 2040s

time:2023-03-22 author:Aviation stock
HSBC: Birth rates collapse, global population to peak in late 2040s

In the past two years, the birth rate of many economies around the world has collapsed, resulting in an accelerated slowdown in global population growth. At present, the populations of countries such as Japan and South Korea have begun to shrink. A recent study by HSBC shows that if the birth rate falls at the current rate, the world's population will peak in the late 2040s, about 40 years earlier than the 2080s predicted by the United Nations. This also means that in the near future, global economic growth may encounter a serious demographic shutdown.

The global population may peak ahead of time

The epidemic has led to a cliff-like decline in the birth rate of the world's major economies in the past two years. The World Population Prospects 2022 report released by the United Nations last month showed that the global birth rate fell by 1 percentage point in 2020-2022, compared with a more stable birth rate in 2019. This also means that compared to 2019, one less baby was born for every 1,000 people, or 8 million fewer births each year, based on a global population of nearly 8 billion. Overall, the number of babies born worldwide will drop by nearly 40 million between 2020 and 2022, more than double the estimated number of excess deaths caused by the new crown epidemic. In addition, the global death rate will increase due to increasing aging. The United Nations predicts that the global birth rate and death rate will intersect in 2086. But HSBC disagrees, saying that on the current trajectory (closer to HSBC's base assumptions), that moment appears to come much earlier, with the two trajectories intersecting around 2050. If the mortality and birth rate trajectories intersect earlier, the global population will also peak earlier. HSBC believes that even without considering the cause of the epidemic, improved health care, changing attitudes, delayed childbearing age, high parenting costs and concerns about the economic outlook will all contribute to the continued rapid decline in birth rates. In a worst-case scenario, where the global birth rate continues to decline on its current trajectory, the global population peaks by 2043, peaking at just over 8 billion, and by 2050 the global population will be 10% less than the UN's base assumption above. This also means that over the next 25 years, the global population growth rate will be reduced by 0.4 percentage points. When it comes to fertility, the United Nations predicts that between 2022 and 2030, fertility will rise in 50 countries around the world (and 14 territories and dependencies). Taking into account factors such as the latest fertility data, HSBC now basically expects the peak to come in the late 40s (last forecast was in the 50s). Compared with HSBC, the UN forecast is more optimistic. The United Nations earlier estimated that the global population will grow to about 8.5 billion and about 9.7 billion by 2030 and 2050, respectively, peaking at about 10.4 billion in the 1980s, and will remain at this level until the end of this century, Then start to descend. In addition, academician Wolfgang Lutz, a well-known demography expert, also gave a more optimistic prediction. Lutz believes that, based on Wittgenstein's "rapid development theory", the global population will peak at 8.7 billion in 2050. Even under its "baseline scenario" projections, the global population will peak at 9.67 billion in 2070 and then slowly decline.

South Korea is standing on the edge of the "population cliff", and the population of the United States is approaching its peak.

In recent years, the fertility rate of many economies around the world has been declining rapidly. South Korea, Singapore and other countries are currently standing on the "population cliff". The edge of the cliff. According to a report released by Statistics Korea on the 24th, South Korea's total fertility rate in 2021 will decrease by 3.4% year-on-year to 0.81, the lowest record in the history of statistics. Among the 38 OECD countries, South Korea has the lowest total fertility rate and is the only country with a total fertility rate below 1. HSBC expects South Korea's fertility rate to be 0.87 in 2022, a slight increase from a year earlier, but enough to reduce South Korea's population by 60% by the end of the century. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's total fertility rate fell to 1.28 in 2021, and Singapore's fertility rate has reached levels that will halve the country's population by the end of the century. Europe is also further and further down the road of population decline. The current fertility rate in Europe is around 1.5 and has been hovering low in recent years. According to HSBC calculations, in a worst-case scenario, using South Korea's fertility rate as the "floor" fertility rate, Europe's population will be 400 million lower than current levels by the end of the century; , Europe's population will still be reduced by more than 50 million. The US population peak may come in the early 1940s. If South Korea's fertility rate is used, the U.S. population will drop by 200 million from current levels by the end of the century. The CBO's fertility rate projections are very similar to the black dotted line in the graph below, ie 5% lower than the UN's assumed birth rate, based on which the U.S. population will still peak in the next 20 years. Furthermore, in countries with higher birth rates, such as India, the effects of declining fertility rates are more pronounced. Under the UN's base assumptions, India's population could begin to decline in the 2070s, but if fertility rates are lower, India's population could peak in the 2040s or 2050s. Based on South Korea's fertility rate, India's population will be nearly 700 million less than current levels by the end of the century. This article is from Wall Street News, welcome to download the APP to see more
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